# Tech Readiness and Online Student Attrition — Evidence Brief

## Overview
What the published research says, what 8.5 years of TechReady data show, and what the last 24 months suggest is happening now.

## How to Read This Brief
Each claim below is anchored in three columns of evidence side by side: peer-reviewed research and institutional data sources on the left, TechReady's full longitudinal dataset (131,418 scans · 19 institutions · October 2017 – April 2026) in the middle, and TechReady's recent slice (14,452 scans · 14 institutions · April 2024 – April 2026) on the right. The pairing exists for one reason: any claim TechReady makes about online student readiness should be defensible against both the published literature and our own data.

## Calibration Note
Where the literature reports a wide range or differs by population, this brief reports the range rather than a single point figure. Where TechReady data is unusually strong or weak compared to the literature, we say so. The goal is a citation-defensible argument, not a marketing artifact — every figure can be footnoted to its source.

## Claim 1: Online Courses Have Measurably Lower Completion Than Face-to-Face
**Evidence:**
| INDUSTRY/RESEARCH EVIDENCE | TECHREADY-LIFETIME(8.5YRS) | TECHREADY-LAST24MONTHS |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Xu & Jaggars (2014) analyzed 40,000 community-college students in Washington State. Completion rates were 5.5 percentage points lower in online courses across all students and 8.2 percentage points lower for vulnerable groups. |  |  |
| Harvard CEPR (2025) finds a significant drop in completion rates in post-pandemic distance education; a trial found students in online courses performed worse than in-person peers. |  |  |
| NCES IPEDS (2024–25) exclusively distance | 131,418 scans across 19 institutions (Oct 2017 - Apr 2026). |  |
| 77.0% of scans flagged at least one technical issue at scan time. |  |  |
| Average score 72.9/100; pass rate 97.6%. |  |  |
| Median bandwidth: 42.5Mbps. |  |  |
| 64.1% flagged at least one issue. |  |  |
| Average score 79.5/100; pass rate ~100%. |  |  |
| Median bandwidth: 121.5Mbps. |  |  |

## What it Means
The completion gap documented in literature is real and persistent. Although severe multi-issue cases have fallen in the recent slice, a large population remains with durable single and double issues.

## Claim 2: Online Attrition Is Heavily Front-Loaded
**Evidence:**
| INDUSTRY / RESEARCH EVIDENCE | TECHREADY — LIFETIME (8.5 YRS) | TECHREADY — LAST 24 MONTHS |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Tyler-Smith (2006) reported that 35% or more of e-learners withdraw before submitting their first assignment. |  |  |
| Lee & Choi (2011) found early-term factors are significant for dropout across students. |  |  |
| Bawa (2016) identifies overestimation of student capability as a major deterrent to online retention. | 98.3% of TechReady scans are single-scan devices. |  |
| 47,445 single-scan devices showed two or more readiness issues and never returned for a second scan. |  |  |
| Similar deployment patterns seen in recent scans. |  |  |

## What it Means
The timing of readiness scanning aligns with published research on online attrition, indicating that pre-term scanning addresses the highest-risk window in the student lifecycle.

## Claim 3: Multiple Compounded Barriers Have a Larger Combined Effect on Persistence Than Any Single Factor
**Evidence:**
| INDUSTRY / RESEARCH EVIDENCE | TECHREADY - LIFETIME (8.5 YRS) | TECHREADY - LAST 24 MONTHS |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Lee & Choi (2011) treat dropout as a multi-causal phenomenon. | 37.5% of scans flagged ≥2 readiness issues. | 21.9% flagged ≥2 issues. |
| Park & Choi (2009) found multi-factor models predicted retention better than demographic factors. | Multi-issue scans are the most at-risk population in TechReady's data. |  |
| Bawa (2016) identified compounding demands as central challenges in retention. |  |  |

## What it Means
The data shows that compounded barriers drive online dropout, with one in five students coming in with multiple readiness issues.

## Claim 4: The Leak Moved With the Pandemic
**Evidence:**
| INDUSTRY/RESEARCH EVIDENCE | TECHREADY-LIFETIME (8.5 YRS) | TECHREADY-LAST 24 MONTHS |
| --- | --- | --- |
| FCC Broadband Deployment Reports document substantial expansion of broadband speed. | Median bandwidth: 42.5Mbps. |  |
| Tyton Partners (2025) found that how faculty conceptualize digital tools shapes outcomes. |  |  |
| WCET Digital Learning Compass documents trends in distance education. | Median bandwidth: 121.5Mbps in recent scans. |  |

## What it Means
Bandwidth improved significantly during the pandemic, yet issues with browser and operating system hygiene persisted, indicating a need for focus in those areas.

## Claim 5: Many Students Don't Seek Help When They Need It
**Evidence:**
| INDUSTRY/RESEARCH EVIDENCE | TECHREADY-LIFETIME (8.5 YRS) | TECHREADY-LAST 24 MONTHS |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Research indicates that students with lower self-esteem are less likely to seek help. | 47,445 students arrived with two or more readiness issues. | 3,147 single-scan devices never returned in the last 24 months. |
| This pattern signifies that many students need help but do not ask for it. |  |  |

## What it Means
Silent dropout, or students who leave without asking for help, is observable in TechReady's data. The readiness scan uniquely surfaces these students before disengagement.